Good morning, Mr. President
The race has been called, and Joe Biden has been declared the winner of the US election, crossing the 270-point threshold needed to become the USA's 46th President.
This year's election had the biggest turnout since 1900, with Biden securing over 74 million votes, the largest ever in history for a US presidential candidate. With Biden's win, Kamala Harris is set to become the first woman vice-president.
Current President, Donald Trump, had the second-highest amount of votes in history with more than 70 million votes. Trump has made it clear he will contest the election results in multiple states and has already begun taking legal action in some states, vowing to further escalate to the Supreme Court.
Provided nothing changes from these threats, Trump will remain President until January 20th, 2021, where the inauguration will happen. At his point, the transfer of power will be passed to Biden, and he will make his way to the White House to begin his four-year term in office.
Uber surpasses IPO valuation
Uber declared recorded losses of c$1.1bn in the last quarter, yet we saw the stock price explode over 30% last week, pushing the stock price to the highest it's seen in over a year. This large bullish move saw price close the week just over its IPO valuation of $45.
At first glance, this could be seen as entirely irrational; however, let us explain...
Last week, voters approved a proposition in California that excuses Uber from categorizing their freelance drivers as employees. This means Uber won't have the additional costs brought in by having employees, such as benefits, insurance, vacation pay, etc. The win in California signifies that these regulatory concerns should ease elsewhere, which is enormous for Uber and similar companies such as Lyft.
Uber's core proposition has seen a 50% fall off in revenue compared to 12 months ago. However, their food delivery business has more than doubled its revenue in this period, benefiting from the increased appetite for takeaway deliveries and serving as another option for online grocery orders.
Boris Johnson has set in place a 4-week lockdown in the UK that started last week. This will see demand for taxi services halt again; however, it's safe to expect a further increase in their food delivery service as we see a massive shift in fundamental behaviors due to the ongoing pandemic.
When we look at the technicals, we can clearly see a strong bullish move last week back towards all-time highs of $47. We expect to see this met early next week before looking for any pullbacks.
Eyes on market open
The election result happened on Saturday when markets were closed. This causes us to expect gapping on market opens across the board. We will be waiting to reassess how markets have reacted to the election results before forming biases and looking for opportunities in the coming week.
We will have our eyes firmly on the US$ Index chart at the start of this week to see how investors are seeing the election result affecting the US dollar moving forward.
We had initially been waiting for the USD to power up and give a deeper weekly pullback before another bearish leg down; however, last week closed with a decisive break to the downside.
These charts could look very different upon market open, at which point we will reassess. We are currently waiting to see how the price responds if we move back down to daily lows, whether we get a break of this level and further downside from here, or if price begins decelerating and forming a double bottom.
TMC Club - meet Bryan Higgins
Bryan has been trading since 2016 however joined us back in December 2019 and has already experienced a massive 20%+ month.
Bryan's story is one of sacrifice, tenacity, adaption, and growth. Bryan's goal is to grow his account into the six-figures within the next 12 months to allow him to trade full-time.
In his interview, Bryan shares how much TMC has helped him from, not only, a trading perspective but on a personal level, ridding his previous limiting beliefs, realizing his self-worth, and engraining stronger belief systems to live by.
Coming up this week
Monday, November 9, 2020 @ 1pm PT
Market Update - lead by Jonny Godfrey
Wednesday, November 11, 2020 @ 1pm PT
Market Update - lead by Jonny Godfrey
Friday, November 13, 2020
October Chronicles Video Package - by Irek Piekarski
All the best for the week ahead - see you in the club!
Jonny Godfrey & the TMC Team
PS. For members- make sure to catch up on the recent episode of Insights: Election Madness hosted by Irek. This 2.5 hour livestream event from Nov 6, 2020, was chart heavy and will assist you to get your watchlists prepped for the coming weeks!