BITCOIN is King
After a historical monthly close in November for Bitcoin, closing at its highest ever monthly level of c$19,600, we have been very optimistic about what we saw next for the king of cryptos. On the 1 December after this historical close, we then took out the previous all-time high of $19,783, further cementing our still bullish outlook on the digital asset.
During the beginning of December, we were decelerating on the daily chart forming an ascending triangle pattern. As we covered in last week's newsletter, 'It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas', although the daily was looking as though bullish momentum was running out, the lower timeframes had a bullish breakout to the upside on the 4H chart.
As we expected, the price surged on another bullish run and looks exceptionally likely to close this week out at a monumental all time high of c$24,000. This is an over 220% gain for the year to date. You could have bought one bitcoin at the start of this year for $7,200, which right now seems like a price we are unlikely ever to see again for the crypto king.
Bitcoin has been a running theme throughout the past month of newsletters for a good reason. Our viewpoint of what has driven this rally, institutional capital, and what makes this bull run so different from December 2017's FOMO driven bull run still stand firm. We remain incredibly optimistic for the price of Bitcoin as we move into 2021 as bullish confluences continue to stack up.
When you see the investors that are now singing Bitcoin's praises, the phrases being thrown around, 'using bitcoin as a hedge against inflation,' 'adopted gold-like asset status,' 'institutions using BTC as their capital reserve'. This only adds to our short term confidence that this bullish momentum will continue.
If the only articles that were coming out were positive, we would become skeptical. This is usually what happens as we approach levels the smart money wishes to exit at, creating FOMO in the retail space to offload their coins to the inexperienced and bank their profits. However, this isn't the case, and there remains a lot of articles being published as warnings that a similar situation could happen as after we previously made an all-time high on Bitcoin.
Aussie Dollar powers on
Quick update on my, Jonny's, previously covered Aussie dollar trades. I remain in my long positions in both AUDJPY and AUDCHF. This week these have moved further into profit, with an enormous +15% profit running and I remain holding, still targeting the full daily wave three runs.
AUDJPY appears to now be stalling at strong daily resistance, and I am manging accordingly on the 4H chart, allowing price the space to pullback on the intradays before continuing the bullish run.
AUDCHF has now broken the daily resistance it was stalling at. I expect a quick retest of this area before the price continues to the upside, pushing me further into profit.
These positions have both been covered in detail within our weekly Market Updates for our members.
Commodities on the horizon
With volume falling for the holiday season across currency pairs, there's not a huge amount of opportunity evident in the Forex market for the start of 2021. Commodities are looking more attractive and giving us some strong technical setups that should develop early on in 2021 to look forward to.
We've had our eyes on a couple of commodity plays after the bullish momentum picked up after the vaccine news in November and further ongoing global stimulus chats. We have had pullbacks on the weekly charts that the daily has now confirmed are over after having strong wave one bullish breakouts.
Cases have spiked over the winter months, and some countries are heading back into national lockdowns as a claimed new strain of Covid has appeared. This has created a wave two pullbacks on the daily charts. We have our eyes firmly on US & UKOil for potential long opportunities as well as Gold and Silver plays.
As we head into the new year of 2021, we will be watching for these wave two pullbacks to complete, decelerate at our confluence areas before continuing their bullish momentum. These technical plays also align with our fundamental viewpoint of the vaccine's positive effect on commodities' prices as they begin to globally roll out the vaccine. The vaccine should dampen the new cases, increasing demand for oil worldwide as the leisure and travel industries' demand increases, people return to commuting to work, etc.
Due to the low volume in traditional markets, our watchlist remains largely the same as the previous few weeks.
US DOLLAR, the price has continued its bearish momentum after breaking the significant support on the daily chart and closing November extremely bearish. We are still expecting a pullback to the significant level of support we broke to retest it as resistance early in the new year.
EQUITIES, we continue to watch for the pullbacks to complete on several reopening plays. Our favourites remain tickers: JETS, CCL, MJ.
Check out TMC's final Insights episode of the year- 2020 Holiday Blastoff from Dec 18, 2020 to hear more.
End of Year Wrap-up
This year has been bizarre and very tough for everyone. Some have been much more affected than others, and we want to strongly commend those who have risen above their setbacks, seen positives through the tough times, and adapted like champions, continuing to push forward and grow within themselves.
We awarded a diamond scholarship to the notorious Alan Lowe earlier in the year and wanted to finish off the year by awarding another to an equally deserving member.
We have a whole club of incredibly deserving members, and as awesome as that is, it made the choice unexplainably difficult. One member stuck out in all our heads. At the beginning of the year, he started with us after losing his restaurant business due to the pandemic. Despite this real-life setback, his spirit and his attitude remained strong. We've seen him apply himself relentlessly, growing in leaps and bounds, not only as a trader but as a human, and we think he is more than deserving of this scholarship.
HUGE congratulations to Cameron Baxter. You have earned this, and we wish you all the best in your future endeavors and nothing but abundance.
Trading MasterClass Holiday Schedule
Here is the Trading MasterClass Holiday Schedule for the next 2 week period:
Monday, Dec 21, 2020 @ 1pm PT
Market Update - by Jonny Godfrey
Wednesday, Dec 23, 2020
Release of Chronicles Video Package for Nov 2020 - by Irek Piekarski
Wednesday, Dec 30, 2020 @ 1pm PT
Market Update - by Jonny Godfrey
Merry Christmas to one and all!
Jonny Godfrey & the TMC Team