Pfizer, Covid-19 vaccine success?
Monday started with an announcement from Pfizer, in collaboration with BioNTech, suggesting they have developed a vaccine with results from phase 3 trials indicating it may be over 90% effective at preventing Covid-19 with no serious safety concerns.
They are the first drug makers to release successful data from a large-scale clinical trial (over 44,000 participants) with no serious safety concerns. Another drug developer, Moderna, who are using similar technology and approach to the vaccine they have been working on, are said to be releasing their trial data in the coming weeks, hinting at similar results.
Pfizer already has supply agreements with the EU, UK, Canada, and Japan, and plans to go after US authorization later this month. They expect to produce the vaccine at a large scale quickly, estimating they could produce up to 50 million doses this year and 1.3 billion in 2021.
There are still many complications and questions to be answered before seeing the vaccine distributed globally. Yet, markets have reacted positively to this announcement, seeing a vaccine as the best way to end both the present health and economic crisis.
As much as the sentiment was positive to start the week off and push equity markets to all-time highs, as the week went on the reality of increasing cases/death figures, continued weakening of data coming from countries’ economies, the market was forced to remember it’s a long winter ahead and a vaccine won’t cure the effects that the pandemic has had on the global economy over night.
Living in a day traders paradise
Many pairs developed textbook setups this week. As we approached midweek, both our mentors and members were putting in overtime to ensure we were filtering the best positions out from the average.
After the considerable momentum that started the week off, there was strong deceleration as markets failed to push higher. At this point, we are looking to capitalize on quick pullback moves before we reassess our biases on where we expect the price of assets to move next.
Our members were ready to capitalize on these moves as we've seen markets behave like this multiple times within 2020. They've had the experience of filtering out the strongest setups to execute, of which we are sure they did with extreme precision.
AUDJPY – it doesn't get any prettier than that!
Out of all the opportunities that developed and presented entries, AUDJPY was one of our favourite pairs.
After the bullish breakout on the daily chart, the price decelerated for 48 hours at a strong resistance level at 76.60, giving us a clear indication that a lower timeframe pullback would happen as bulls failed to continue the momentum.
On the lower timeframes, we got a clean breakdown. At this point, we waited for the price to retest our confluences and entered short when we saw a rejection of these levels. Price fell straight into profit, hitting our profit target in less than 15 hours for a healthy gain.
AUDJPY is one example of the many textbook setups that developed at the end of last week, all playing out as per our biases. I, Jonny, will be covering the positions I caught in full detail in Monday's Market Update, so be sure to attend live.
ZOOM; everything that goes up must come down
Unless you're in an industry where you were regularly hosting online webinars, you most likely hadn't heard of ZOOM last year. Yet in 2020, 'Zooming' has become a verb that is now commonly used. When the pandemic escalated and lockdowns began, ZOOM, a cloud-based video conferencing service, became the go-to app for not only businesses to host meetings/events but for family and friends to connect.
With this unstoppable increase in usage, we saw the stock price explode, reaching all-time highs of $590, causing the founder, Eric Yuan's net worth to catapult above $22 billion in stock holdings.
On Pfizer's announcement at the start of this week, ZOOM’s stock price tumbled from these highs, causing a large gap down on Monday's market open. The stock price ended last week at $452, a 32% drop from all-time highs. If Pfizer's vaccine sees the success they are claiming, then it's to be expected workers will soon return to their offices, families, and friends will no longer need to rely on 'ZOOMING' to see each other.
Something that we regularly talk about is how technical analysis time and time again predicts the underlying fundamentals. ZOOM is an excellent example of this. We've been watching this stock for several weeks as it looked to be forming a head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart, which we have now confirmed.
There was an opportunity to get short ZOOM before the large gap down that occurred on Monday. There may still be another opportunity to catch depending on how price acts this week. We will be keeping our eyes open for a full pullback to the H&S neckline that aligns with several other confluences to wait for further short opportunities.
TMC Club - OG Sam Shaper
When it comes to the TMC Club, Sam is as OG as it gets. Sam joined TMC hours after the launch back in 2018 and has been a valuable member of the club ever since. He worked as part of the team in 2018/19, providing support and value to newer members, and did a fantastic job.
Sam's current focus is on diversifying his overall investment portfolio and launching a business he has been working hard on for the last six months.
Check this out in more detail by reading his full interview here.
What's happening this week
It's an action-packed week for the TMC Club with 4 live events taking place:
Monday, November 16, 2020 @ 1pm PT
Market Update - lead by Jonny Godfrey
Tuesday, November 17, 2020 @ 11am PT
Chronicles LIVE - lead by Irek Piekarski
*Diamond access required
Wednesday, November 18, 2020 @ 1pm PT
Market Update - lead by Jonny Godfrey
Friday, November 20, 2020 @ 1pm PT
Insights - lead by Irek Piekarski
All the best for the week ahead and we'll see you in the club!
Jonny Godfrey & the TMC Team